[A visual argument against trading down & for trading up]

I think its hard to rank where the players ended up getting picked and determining hit rate.  Ideally you would compare similar players and profiles and the grades that you have on them and look there at where you might have been wrong.  What makes Collins a hit and bateman a miss?  etc. 

 

Sometimes you'll be like - bro had trash QBs, or trash coaches, or whatever.  But thats i think how i would look at it.  

[Third day of the draft]

1 minute ago, Bag of Milk said:

I watch the draft until the bitter end every year  Does anyone remember about what time the draft ended last year? I know it will vary somewhat 

I actually have family coming in from out of town and I don't want to be interrupted until the draft is completely over.

I mean family is nice, but it's the Draft!!

 

I used to prefer the saturday sunday format.  I guess this gives them more eyeballs though.  

[Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player. 
 

I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either. 
 

So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.

 

I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys

 

I think they like tolbert more than most people.  However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.  

[Micah Hyde Charity Softball Game-May 19th]

I still think he's better than both of our safeties - who both signed for backup money.  

 

They get 10M in space come june 1st.  Post-draft i think they'll have a better idea on what they want to do with that money.  If they get 2 WRs in the draft and they're comfortable rolling with that group, maybe a free agent WR is less of a priority.  Mocks have been pointing to a safety for buffalo, but we'll know more in a week or so.  

 

I personally don't think they're done at safety be it draft or free agency.  Obviously hyde is out there, but so are Simmons, Jackson, Diggs, Adams etc.  There's still a ton of dudes out there.  

[Epic, Hypothetical Trade Scenario: Would ya?]

I don't trade him for literally anything.  

 

I'd trade his #1 WR.  I'd fire the HC and GM - he's only ever worked with the 2 we have so i'd be willing to take my chances with allen and new people over giving the staff free reign to build from the ground up.  

 

I know its hypothetical.  But i'd rather start over with josh than use him to get assets to start over.  

[Best examples of failed 1st rounders who revived their careers?]

43 minutes ago, Udubalum07 said:

What comments did Elam make after the season?

 

It was more a lack of a comment:

 

Butler and Bills 2022 first-round draft pick Kaiir Elam never seemed to get on the same page since the former Florida product entered the league. At locker cleanout back in January after the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs, Elam expressed his frustration with a disappointing second season.

Elam said he had a great offseason but ultimately lost the competition for the starting number-two cornerback spot and only played in three regular season games (two starts).

When asked about how much he leaned on now former DBs coach Butler, Elam responded with: “No comment.”

[Best examples of failed 1st rounders who revived their careers?]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Elam isn't a failed first rounder.  Most of the time when he plays, he plays pretty well.  He has had some key INT's in big games for us at big times and in the endzone.  Pittsburgh in the playoffs last year for example.

 

For some reason, McD is unwilling to let him play and learn. Injuries have played a part in it, but I don't really understand how almost everytime he is pressed into duty(other than the Jags game where his ankle was basically unable to function properly) and he makes plays that you keep taking him out.

 

He hasn't been given the opportunity really, and maybe he hasn't earned it in training camp or practice or preseason or whatever.  But Goddamn, how many big plays does he have to make IN REAL LIVE GAMES THAT MATTER before you give him a chance? Does McD have some secret agenda where he simply dislikes him to the point he will only play him if forced to?

 

They did hire a new coach for the corners (addae), and there is a new defensive coordinator in place (babich).  Previous secondary coach John Butler was also the "passing game coordinator", and Elam's post-season comments seemed to indicate that they may have butted heads a bit.  

[DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. 
 

So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

 

Last time there was a historically deep WR class we acquired Diggs.  6 WRs went in the first - 

 

Ruggs - Bust for off-field

Jeudy - Not a full-on bust, but not nearly the impact of others in this class

Lamb - All-pro

Raegor - Bust

Jefferson - All-pro

Aiyuk - 2nd team all-pro last year, and has grown into a great player

 

Next 2 off board were Higgins and Pitman.  Both very good players.  Best of the rest was probably Mooney and Gabe Davis.  

 

Any number of reasons can be why a player doesn't hit though.  Ruggs made very bad choices, and his career is done.  Claypool doesn't want to put in the effort to become a good player.  Hamler just kept getting injured - and has a heart condition. 

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Usually they extensions include that year and bring down their cap hit. 
 

It’s why Jerry Jeudy appeared to get so much GTD money in his extension, because this season for him was already fully GTD.

 

Yeah, makes sense.  Take the 5th year option, convert it to a bonus and spread it over the term (plus void years). 

[DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?]

17 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

 

I don't think the Smith extension even starts right away either as he had a 5th year option for 2025.  More just making sure to put the number in the books now so you know what it is for later, and to prevent drama/holdouts.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/yearly/cap/

I enjoy cap financials, but this is very confusing. They structure their contracts with option bonuses that automatically add void years.  

[The Draft is a Total Crapshoot (Per Science)]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pretty much. Talent, size, and explosiveness is what scouts look for over production. But then you have players with great production and average size and explosiveness. Those are typically the players that get missed by scouts. It’s almost impossible to know who will translate to the NFL based on measurements. Then there’s the mental makeup. Something no one can predict.

 

QB is a total coin flip. I don’t care what anyone says, they have no clue.

 

Arm talent and athleticism can get you far in college - in the NFL everyone has arm talent and i'd say most QBs today have some level of athleticism.  

 

Between the ears pre and post snap, how you throw on the run and under pressure, how you sense pressure in general, how you manipulate the defense, how you manipulate passing windows, etc.  That seems to be the part that most scouts get wrong, and probably the hardest part to evaluate and project at the next level. 

[Interesting and detailed Bills Draft visits chart]

2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

agreed.  The hate for Dane is ridiculous.  He wasn't a 1st round pick.  The guy was a heck of a player for a 7th rounder, and not many teams (if any) have a  backup CB that could step up like he did.  

 

He (like levi wallace before him) never developed the ball skills to be relied upon for more than depth in a zone scheme.  He tackles well, and does an OK job of disrupting the catch point - he had a rough year last year in this regard but a lot of them were really good catches honestly.  I wonder how much of that was a lack of athleticism causing him to play a bit more off coverage to prevent being beat deep on those cover 3/4/6 looks.  In man coverage i don't think he had the speed or size to be able to play much effective under coverage, and definitely isn't consistently getting his head around to make a play.  

[Police searching for Rashee Rice in connection to accident - Now officially charged]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Right. But in this case, Rice has admitted full guilt, turned himself in, is fully cooperating, and is going the total contrition, "throw himself on the mercy of the court" route.

In these types of cases, it's my understanding that prior legal history and a stance of remorse both play big parts, and Rice has been in absolutely no prior legal trouble, and is at least feigning (if not actually feeling) remorse.

At the end of the day, I STILL expect this to be plead down to lesser misdemeanor chargers, a hefty fine and financial restitution paid, no jail time, and no more than four games suspension. Likely just two.

That's my prediction and I'm stickin to it!

 

Seems logical.  Honestly - this is sort of how the justice system should work?  Ideally you give someone a sufficient enough punishment to change their behavior, and with no priors and a high profile job, you can be expected to have the fine and stuff to cover all the time lawyers/judges wasted, and restitution for the damages you caused, and some level of - if you're back here on similar charges, you're going to have a much worse time.  

 

I personally don't want to send everyone to jail for everything.  It's just a problem when having money is the reason that you don't get a charge - not... chances of reoccurrence.  At the same time, insurance companies aren't going to want to pay out when the driver was racing, possibly drunk, with a gun in the car.  So having money can pay some of that, whereas if you were broke doing the same thing?  I'm not sure what else they can do other than put you in jail.  

[Jax Josh Allen Gets $141.25M & $76.5M GTD]

18 hours ago, H2o said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/trent-baalke-josh-allen-is-a-cornerstone-of-our-defense

 

This is the 2nd DE to get PAID in the last couple of weeks. Brian Burns also got $141M, but $87.5M GTD. We'll have Rousseau for two more years on his current contract. But if he continues to improve, then that price tag is going to be hefty. 

 

We'd have von off the books though, and ideally they add someone else.  He needs to crack 10 sacks to get a big payday though.  

[Milano as trade compensation]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

To be truthful, I don't think Edmunds enjoyed contact.

 

Mitch Morse said about Josh Allen that "he's sick in the head because he likes it" (meaning contact, running people over, taking a good hit).  Richard Sherman talked about the first time he went to tackle Josh Allen, Josh lowered his shoulder and Sherman was thinking "oh, OK now, you the QB and you're going to lower your shoulder, let's go".   He said "next thing I know, I'm on the ground, you see them little blinks".

 

You would know more than me, but I've heard football players talk about the buzz they get from contact, it goes white, "you see them little blinks", it's an adrenaline rush.  They all get desensitized to the pain of contact where instead of taking over their nervous system with a rush of sensation, the brain says "OK, no injury there, Carry On", but the ones who play with joy and abandon actually get something enjoyable from a good hit.  "You need a little contact"

 

I could be wrong, I just don't think Edmunds ever enjoyed or got into hitting or taking hits.  Whereas you can tell Bernard and Williams are "Bring It!". 

Taylor Rapp is a bit *TOO* "bring it!".

 

Part of why safety in the 2nd is still very much in play IMO. 

[Milano as trade compensation]

11 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Bernards a stud. Can't see how they wouldn't be super confident in him. Played like a pro bowler/borderline all pro. 

 

Regardless of how they feel on Williams,  no chance they move Milano. It's not like he's coming off an acl. He'll be ready for all off season programs.

I personally do love Williams as depth though but Milano in another level,  and a top 3 LB on a reasonable contract.

 

Remember folks, we get over 10 mil on the cap after 6/1 from Tres release 

I liked Bernard because he saw the field in a way that lead to pass breakups and turnovers.  Edmunds was a good player, and his ability to take away passing lanes likely results in the QB holding the ball which forces sacks and throwaways.  He just never developed that instinctual nature that milano and bernard possess (and all the great off ball linebackers have).

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly,  you can trade Knox all day long as far as I'm concerned.  But Milano is still too valuable to our defense. The biggest question mark is how he looks post injury?

 

I think you would get more out of trading spencer brown.  Low cap hit for 2024 (most teams have spent a lot of their cap budgets to this point in the season), he's 26, and he's due an extension in 2025.  It'd be basically like moving a potential comp pick from 2026 to today - but considering we'll likely be spenders in 2025, you would potentially be losing him for nothing.  This assumes you are comfortable with collins or van demark at RT.  

[1st vs 2nd Round WR Hit Rate]

15 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

 

I mean... the 2nd round is usually where teams have drafted traits over production and fit.  You also see a lot of slot WRs go in the 2-3 range (Boyd, Samuel, Shepard, Juju, Kirk, Moore x2, and a bunch of other slot WR misses on the list above).  

 

Thomas has been derailed by injury but... he won OPOY and holds the record for most catches in a season at 149 (which he did in 16 games).  

 

Other thing to take into account  - there are a bunch of hits outside of the top 60.  
 

2021 - Amon-ra St. Brown, Nico Collins

2020 - Gabe Davis

2019 - Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Renfrow, Slayton

2018 - Gallup

2017 - Kupp, Godwin

2016 - Tyreek

2015 - Diggs, Lockett, Crowder

 

 

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Now do 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds

Calvin Ridley is not a ++ player? The man put up almost 1400 yards one season? 1000 yards last year...he is a very good receiver

 

Yeah - i feel sort of similarly to Kirk.  He was behind Hopkins and Fitz, but he's been very good for the jaguars.  

[Interesting and detailed Bills Draft visits chart]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

Is the goal of this team to collect mediocre db's from Pitt because if so they are doing a great job. Do they have a scout there who is someone's son and they always just take his word for it?

I have no idea where hes projected to go... but all things considered dane was a good soldier here and a ton of value for a 7th round pick.  Started 28 games, another 5 in the playoffs.  

[Milano as trade compensation]

So we're going to trade a former first team all-pro for peanuts because he's injury prone to garbage turf in London?  

 

I think the fact that Lavonte david, demario davis, Bobby Wagner, and CJ mosely have all continued to perform into their 30s makes me a bit more comfortable with him at his age.  Not to mention - he was playing fantastic football to start the season.  Why add MORE new faces to a defense in flux? 

[Could Dawson Knox be more of a gadget guy?]

58 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

I think the drops can be mitigated. He's basically 2-3 years behind his contemporaries because of injuries and the fact that he was never used as a pass catcher in college. He's an athlete though and a stellar red zone target, and I think you're right, we can do much worse as TE2. 

 

His drops last year were some pretty rough ones.  But i love his physicality.  Combine that with similar aggressive run after catch ability you see from kincaid, and you can make it really tough on another teams secondary by forcing them to shed blocks and tackle these big dudes.  

[Could Dawson Knox be more of a gadget guy?]

Just now, Bruffalo said:

I'm way higher on Knox than most people on this board, and I think he's gotten a bit of a bum rap because of injuries and the fact that he constantly needed to assist the subpar O-Line with blocking. I think he's a good player with a lot of upside and a contract that he hasn't lived up to, but I don't know that it's 100% his fault. 

 

I don't think Knox is a gadget guy, but I do like the idea of being even more creative in the playcalling.

 

He sucked last year - plain and simple.  Injuries definitely played a part - he tried to play with a broken wrist for a few weeks.

 

At the same time, he was actually pretty solid the previous 2 seasons so I'm not worried that he's "lost a step".  He's always had issues with drops so thats probably never going away, but the guy can play and he's probably our best redzone weapon at this point.  If we're going to play a more physical brand of football with him and kincaid as pass catchers, you can do a LOT worse at TE2. 

[Has the final four replaced the SB as your most enjoyable sporting event!?]

35 minutes ago, JohnnyBuffalo said:

Resounding NO!

 

The most frustrating thing about basketball is how slow it gets at the end of the game.    These are some of the most elite athletes on the planet and between fouls and timeouts the game screeches to a halt.  To me it’s boring and frustrating to watch.   “Oh the other man tapped my arm”. Game stop.  Boring.  
 

Playoff hockey on the other hand is some of the most exciting action in the critical times of the game. The refs take a step back and the whistle is put away the speed hits another level and the action is non-stop.   Unfortunately TV doesn’t showcase the speed and the Sabres have stunk for 12 seasons and counting…
 

So between March Madness and Super Bowl….Super Bowl is better.  
 

 

Love that Elam ending that they use in the basketball tournament.  No more stalling in the zone, no more intentional fouling, and it'd cut down on all the timeouts.  The only thing you lose is the potential "buzzer beater".  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elam_Ending

[WR Treylon Burks]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Thinking a bit more about this I don’t like the idea of adding Burkes even if it was for almost nothing. If he’s going to have success in the NFL it’ll likely be as a possession WR out of the slot. We don’t have much need there. We’d be better off looking for an X to take a flier on. 

 

He's a big boy and isn't quick so i don't see him in the slot, i just wonder if he's more bark than bite.  

[How should we address WR?]

I would like a move up to get your guy, but I'm not wagering two drafts.  The extra 2nd in 2025 makes you a bit flexible with next years first round pick.  But I do think we still need 3 picks in the first 4 rounds, as well as more picks than normal.  I think I'd like to see 8 players picked total - WR, WR, CB, DT, DE, OG, S, RB maybe (I think RB can possibly be UDFA), 

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

They'll be nothing left wr-wise by the 3rd round after the 2nd run on wrs is over. And we can still double dip this year trading up a little for BTJ then trade up in the 2nd for maybe Legette?  It can be done....

 

There's always people that slip through cracks because teams have depth and don't want to draft a WR6/7 in the 3rd round.  Shakir was drafted in the 5th - while pre draft i felt like he was right in that same window with guys like Robinson and Moore who went like 100 picks ahead of him.  

[Could Dawson Knox be more of a gadget guy?]

5 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

Keep arguing. He's paid like a top half TE1 with a TE2 role.

 

I don't disagree on his being overpaid, just that i don't believe he's paid as even a top 10 TE.  And beyond that, he mostly sucked last year.  I think injuries derailed him quite a bit too though.  His hands were never particularly consistent, but he'd made strides the last 2 seasons before the wrist injury last year. 

 

You definitely bring in other options and improve the WR room - but there's a potentially larger role to carve out than he's ever had before with that many targets becoming available.  

[Traditional vs. 'Modern Day' X Receiver]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

The bolded is AD Mitchell IMO. He is the classic he does a lot of stuff well, but I am not sure what the special trait is.

 

yeah - at 28 i don't hate that because you can potentially move them into a #2 type role target-wise and they'll continue to be a good player while you chase traits either next year or with a later pick.  I'm just reluctant to go fishing for that guy.