BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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59 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:
Yessss. Thats my contention too -that more than "#1 WR" or "#2 WR", i rather think of our receivers are (in) capable of challenging the opposing D in every part of the field cos our QB can reach there without rainbowing passes.
At this moment, we dont have that kind of field coverage from the WR room. The skillset leaves large areas of uncovered green. Hope that changes in the next 51 hours.
There is also this phenomena where the further fans get from the regular season the more they start to connect dots that they had known that the universe will not allow to meet just months earlier. "We don't need an X receiver" was once "sure, Trent Edwards probably CAN run a no huddle offense if you give him Lee Evans and TO". The deeper we get into the offseason the more people forget games aren't won on paper, they are won on TV......where it's much move violent. Mini-camps with their no-contact don't help quell the delusion.
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32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Yes they do
Someone not yet on the roster is going to get a significant amount of targets the next few seasons
It has to be a guy w the physical traits to warrant them
Yeah what @Mikey152 is missing is the critical importance of big plays.
Defense now is all about preventing them.........and the offense desperately need them because it's hard to execute 10-18 play drives in an era of such turnover and so little practice without unforced errors........let alone the forced one's.
It's why scoring fell off around the league last season.
A lot of teams who thought they had enough good weapons going into last season found out they did not.
Those outside positions..........particularly the X being on the LOS and thus allowing you to put another receiver in motion to free them up.........are critically important because it's easier to get chunks out there if your QB can get the ball deep.
And Allen is a unicorn on a lot of deep throws. He isn't a great bucket-ball tosser but he can reach parts of the field with ropes that defense's just aren't going to be able to consistently cover without leaving something wide open underneath or in the middle. Not leaning into that strength would be organizational malpractice.
People think that the Bills were killing it offensively under Brady but the truth was that it was a struggle. They were having to run Allen almost 10x per game down the stretch to make their small-ball passing game work.
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Yep and I'd also add that the Bills don't "need" to win a Super Bowl.
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3 hours ago, Virgil said:
The crazy thing is that he's sort of a Khalil Shakir comp. 6' tall T-Rex armed slot receiver who has transitioned gradually more outside and put up big numbers. Maybe @Alphadawg7 is selling Khalil way short.
And truth is........guys who compare to St. Brown basically never turn into anything at the NFL level. His list of physical comps is a bunch of players who never made it.
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They look like kicky ball "kits".
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1 hour ago, Brandon said:
Agreed, and to me, I thought it really showed up after the catch. Sure, if he catches it in stride and can hit the afterburner, he's a major problem. But in traffic, if he can't, if he has to turn and run and the defender is in decent position, he's usually not going anywhere. Very surprised to see how many short passes with little to no RAC out of a guy with that kind of speed and burst.
Well Brian Thomas Jr. basically ran a Gabe Davis route tree.........which means anything he catches in front of coverage is going to be while moving forward or at a dead stop. Tall, leggy players aren't going to get YAC in those situations. Most players don't, actually. Gabe couldn't be used over the middle because his hands were atrocious. They'd try him in the slot in camp and/or preseason every year to see if his offseason of work had improved his hands so he could be used as a big slot to expand his usefulness........but it never did take. BTJ's hands are not a strength either but Gabe was a very different situation.
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7 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:
Lindy's 64 I think he's only here for 2 or 3 years MAX(could be a one and done possibly) I think he can be the bridge guy that brings the franchise back to respectability and gets them in the playoffs but agreed then they will need to find the guy that can really navigate them to a Cup contending team.
Yeah, ultimately I just question if a team will buy into him for any sustained period of time now because in the locker room you are what your record says you are.........and his record says "not a capable championship coach". Fair or unfair, young men in pro sports see things in black and white like that. Pegula and Adams just gotta' know that coming in to avoid wasting more seasons.
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Good enough hire for one year. He will get them back to some of the basic thresholds of professionalism. Like Dick Jauron did in 2006 when cleaning up the disorganized mess that Mike Mularkey left behind. But then they need to be ready to pivot quickly to something better..........which is also something that should be a given for an NHL franchise.
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12 hours ago, dave mcbride said:
Don’t get me wrong - I want guys who get open AND make contested catches. I’d love to have Jefferson on the Bills, for instance. But those guys are rare.
They aren't THAT rare though........Jefferson isn't the bar.........he's just currently the very best.
The way I see it, Beane went from one extreme(big/slow) to the next(slight/nifty) with the Diggs/Beasley/Brown/Sanders types and he's just missed the sweet spot for playoff success. I think Kincaid can be a Kelce-lite, which might be the ideal for playoff football. They NEED to add to that on the boundary.
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On 4/17/2024 at 10:12 PM, dave mcbride said:
Since Daboll starred running the show, the Bills have been a “windows” offense with regard to the passing game. The last thing they want is the next N’Keal Harry, Kelvin Benjamin, or late-career DeVonte Parker — contested catch guys that can’t separate. When they signed Emmanuel Sanders, he was coming off two seasons in a row where, he, along with Diggs, achieved the best separation rates in the league. In fact, the Bills really wanted to add Sanders in 2020 via trade, but it was not meant to be. Anyway, that trait is what Allen thrives on and what the Bills prioritize. Also, let’s face it — it’s a little bit harder to come down with contested catches in the worst-weather stadium in the league where the QB is the highest-velocity thrower in league history.
You'd hope that the playoffs would have taught the Bills their lesson in this regard though. Get-open little guys are great in the regular season when the refs are calling penalties for interference/holding in the secondary........but you want physical WR's in January/February. Gotta' find a medium. It exists. Harry and Benjamin weren't really athletic enough. Parker had the tools but not the desire and injuries probably sapped him of his juice. Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf are giant sized WR's who have produced in the regular season and whose games have translated to even more success in the playoffs.
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2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Why would anyone want to pay $925 million dollars (and probably be asked to help with finances for the team) and have no say in anything?
Because it's a great investment and gets your foot in the door to gain controlling interest of a team in the future?
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10 minutes ago, Low Positive said:
I am flipping back and forth between TBD and SabresSpace today and on one board Josh Allen is demanding a trade because he hates Sean McDermott (there is no indication that this is true in any way) and on the other board, the team is getting sold and moved (all because of someone on Twitter who posts under the name 12oz sports). Buffalo sports fans are like a toxic slurry of misery and confirmation bias. If our teams aren't actively in the process of making us miserable, we'll invent stuff to make ourselves miserable. Misery is our natural state. My theory is that it all stems from an inferiority complex that comes from growing up in WNY when the place was not nice at all and Johnny Carson used to make fun of us weekly. Everybody hates us and we don't deserve nice things.
I haven't seen anyone on TSW suggest Josh Allen wants a trade because he hates Sean McDermott. Never seen that once on TSW.
Yes, Buffalo sports fans have been beaten down by never winning a SB or Stanley Cup and a lot of unfortunate turns of event.
But your gross exaggeration of what's been said.......and your mental health related screen name..........leads me to believe you might be dealing with some mental health issues.
Star players change teams if they think it furthers their careers. Very few of them play their entire career in one place. LeBron left his home town TWICE to chase titles. He has a hell of a lot more invested in Ohio than JA has in WNY.
It's a business not a personal attack on fans.
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13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
I think he genuinely loves Buffalo and is going to stay the course. Only way I see him leaving would be towards the very end of his career like Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Farve.
They named a hospital wing after his grandmother.
He is getting the publicity, the commercials, the attention now....and has a Hollywood GF while being in Buffalo.
You feel that way because YOU love the Bills. It's what we do. We project the way we feel onto players and coaches that we like or are optimistic about. It's the same phenomenon we have here when new people are hired. Everyone presumes that the new people see things the same as they do because the last people clearly did not. We saw it with McDermott and Beane. For most, everything they did was greeted with unquestioned support. Over time the faith in McDermott in particular has eroded. Now they think he can't see what they do. The next guy would.
I think we'd be lying if we said the guy we thought Josh Allen was in 2020 is the same guy we think he is now. Back then he was seen as having Tom Brady's single-minded desire about improving himself as a football player. He was a grounded guy with the same girl forever and would settle down and not look back because he was raised that way. That narrative has gradually changed. We've re-set our expectations of him professionally and personally.
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20 minutes ago, julian said:
Yeah I agree with much of this, at this point Allen can’t and won’t catch Mahomes in any all time conversations regardless if he leaves the conference and beats him in a SB, the head start is too great.
Manning faced the same conversations surrounding his playoff defeats against Brady, until he got over the hump and won a title, now that conversation is a mere side note to history.
I think almost everyone agrees that Allen has been left in the dust of Mahomes' history making.
But I really doubt Josh Allen feels that way.
Going 1-0 against Mahomes in the SB would draw him a lot closer in the court of public opinion than some might think. The excuse would be made that he'd been playing with one hand tied behind his back with McDermott as his coach.
It feels over, but it's not.
When Manning finally won his first, it put him back in the potential best-of-his-generation conversation because he had always been so much better statistically than Brady. The subsequent 18-0 Patriots regular season really changed the perception of Brady from product of Belichick's system to truly great individual performer.
And then at one time Ben Roethlisberger drew within 3-2 of Tom Brady in SB wins.......and the Steelers future looked so bright that it was all but presumed he'd catch and pass Bradshaw's 4 at least. The Pats went 10 years between SB wins #3 and #4.
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So Anthony Rizzo is playing like he's still concussion addled. He is embarrassing himself in the field and has turned into a slap hitter because he can't barrel up the ball anymore. Perhaps a result, the Yankees just promoted their slick fielding AA first baseman TJ Rumfield to AAA. I kinda' wonder if the problems in the field continue if Rizzo might pull an in-season retirement. Also, perhaps the Yanks move Spencer Jones back to 1B, where he once played a lot, at AA and start grooming him as a Cody Bellinger-esque CF/1B combo.
Saw this story though too. As @4merper4mer knows and the article points out his Cardinals are a tired old bunch of basement dwellers. They are really struggling with the balanced schedule when they used to fatten up off all those extra games against their cheap-assd central division rivals. Could Goldie go to the Yanks? He'd be a hit for a half season in NY. It would be to the jewish community what Rizzo/Gallo were to Italian fans when they were acquired. Ain't going to be no blockbuster tho. He's on his last legs at 37.
https://www.si.com/mlb/cardinals/cardinals-superstar-linked-to-yankees-in-possible-blockbuster-trade
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1 hour ago, julian said:
I agree with almost all of this, if Allen believes the people upstairs aren’t trying hard enough or aren’t capable of making the correct roster decisions or coaching changes he might decide it’s time to try elsewhere and rightfully so.
Great point point about Shanahan, that dude seems like he’s aiming to go down as greatest offensive mind to ever coach without an elite QB, the Shanahan system seems to have become such a narrative that I’d guess it might actually rub some offensive players the wrong way.
I’d only disagree with the opportunity to get away from Mahomes viewpoint, I don’t believe Allen is wired that way and his compete level is off the charts. I think Allen believes wholeheartedly that he can, should and will beat Mahomes every time they line up.
IMHO.
He wouldn't be avoiding Mahomes. He'd be aligning to not play him until the biggest game.
History doesn't care too much about who you had to beat to get to a SB........just whether you were there and if you won.
Losing in the divisional round to Mahomes or Burrow every year is forgettable. Like a Philip Rivers or even most of Drew Brees career in the playoffs. Afterthoughts. Winning against them for once in the playoffs would be nice but he'd still be 1-4 against them.
Winning a SB against them makes you 1-0.
Allen, Burrow and Mahomes being on the same side of the draw and the QB-loaded AFC facing system QB's Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy in the grand finale is rather anticlimactic for the league.
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57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I'd be stunned and I mean stunned if it happened after 2024 even if the Bills have something of a down year. But do I live in a fantasy world where Josh Allen with his Hollywood other half, an increasing national profile and a burning desire to win is destined to play for the Bills until he hangs them up? No. I absolutely think that there is a chance a point is reached where a combination of frustration at not getting over the hump, the chance to go somewhere "cool" and the opportunity to get away from Mahomes every darn year is tempting enough for him to find a way to move on.
That said I continue to believe he'd drive Kyle "just run my damn plays" Shanahan to utter distraction with his play style. Kyle doesn't just have to win. He has to win by showing everyone he is the smartest guy in the room. Not sure how well his huuuuuge ego would deal with Josh Allen running around off script and being superman and therefore getting all the credit.
If he cares about his legacy he's not going to wait until his mid-30's to try to win one Super Bowl like Matt Stafford did.........he'll get out while he has the runway to get back in the conversation with Mahomes.
And why not play where you have chosen to make your home? He values the opinions of guys like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and I am sure they'd tell him to follow the path of least resistance to his life goals.
Right now, I'm just most concerned with the Bills finding a way to win without Allen having to carry the ball 10x per game just to make the playoffs. If that doesn't change I'd say he's off to greener pastures in the next couple years.
Then........if they do show that they are making a concerted effort to maximize his talent and earning potential into his late 30's.........I could even see a tiny portion of ownership being dangled to keep him from being drawn elsewhere.
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Being "built different" might help your short arms get off press..........but also might not.
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Thanks for the effort with the write-ups.........but you played yourself here.
Beane was talking up Dane Jackson like he was a CB1 before he drafted Elam.
It's what he does. Set the bar of expectations low.
-"Hmmmm.........maybe WR isn't REALLY a need? Beane's got this!"
-"Oh, we got a WR in round 1! I know it wasn't a need but I'm glad Beane got us one. Dude is a wizard!"
Don't worry, you'll forget Beane even said it later.
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8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I'm a bit puzzled why you're replying to me here.
In general, my phrase for Beane is that I think he tells the truth, but not the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I've said that in other posts.
I have no idea what "puppeteering Bills fans" means or why you think it's an important trait for a GM - I woulda thought building a good enough roster to sustain a high W-L record and get into the playoffs would be more his jam, but whatever.
It's very simple..........Beane says whatever fits his agenda. And that's fine. "Don't expect any big moves" can just as easily mean $120M contract to Von Miller is coming with Beane. That was an example of a bald-faced Big Baller Beane lie. It was a move that had been in the making since the trade deadline the previous season. But if you think that was a spur of the moment decision then it's not surprising that you get puzzled so easily. That's what he's counting on from Bills fans. He sets bars that he can realistically, if not EASILY, surpass and that makes he and the Pegula's look good and prevents the unwashed from keeping receipts on them. That's something the Pegula's gotta' love about him with all the heat they get for their greater personal involvement with the Sabres.
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4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3. It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.
1st Round Wide Receivers
2023
1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba
1 LAC Quentin Johnston
1 BAL Zay Flowers
1 MIN Jordan Addison
2022
1 ATL Drake London
1 NYJ Garrett Wilson
1 NOR Chris Olave
1 DET Jameson Williams
1 WAS Jahan Dotson
1 TEN Treylon Burks
2021
1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase
1 MIA Jaylen Waddle
1 PHI DeVonta Smith
1 NYG Kadarius Toney
1 BAL Rashod Bateman
2020
1 LVR Henry Ruggs III
1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR
1 DAL CeeDee Lamb
1 PHI Jalen Reagor
1 MIN Justin Jefferson
1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk
2019
1 BAL Marquise Brown
1 NWE N'Keal Harry
2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers
2023
2 CAR Jonathan Mingo
2 GB Jayden Reed
2 KC Rashee Rice
2 DEN Marvin Mims
3 HOU Nathaniel Dell
3 NYG Jalin Hyatt
3 CLE Cedric Tillman
3 IND Josh Downs
3 ARI Michael Wilson
3 LVR Tre Tucker
2022
2 GNB Christian Watson
2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson
2 HOU John Metchie
2 NWE Tyquan Thornton
2 PIT George Pickens
2 IND Alec Pierce
2 KAN Skyy Moore
3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.
3 DAL Jalen Tolbert
3 CLE David Bell
3 SFO Danny Gray
2021
2 NYJ Elijah Moore
2 ARI Rondale Moore
2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge
2 LAR Tutu Atwell
2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.
3 LAC Josh Palmer
3 WAS Dyami Brown
3 GNB Amari Rodgers
3 HOU Nico Collins
3 CLE Anthony Schwartz
2020
2 CIN Tee Higgins
2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.
2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.
2 DEN KJ Hamler
2 PIT Chase Claypool
2 LAR Van Jefferson
2 NYJ Denzel Mims
3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.
3 LVR Bryan Edwards
3 BAL Devin Duvernay
2019
2 SFO Deebo Samuel
2 TEN A.J. Brown
2 KAN Mecole Hardman
2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside
2 IND Parris Campbell
2 ARI Andy Isabella
2 SEA D.K. Metcalf
3 PIT Diontae Johnson
3 SFO Jalen Hurd
3 WAS Terry McLaurin
3 BAL Miles Boykin
Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.
There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft. The hit rate there is 60%. If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%. If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...
think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft??? Rome Odunze, anyone????
Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys. 27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.
Hit rates in general drop a lot in each subsequent round.
You can try to tell ardent trade-back people that all day and give them statistical proof to back it up...........they just won't want to hear it.
But none of trading up, staying put or trading back has proven to be a consistently reliable "formula".
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1 minute ago, BillsVet said:
It would be the biggest gut punch for Bills fans to have the franchise QB demand a trade after the 2025 season because the QB didn't perceive the HC/GM provided the resources to win in 2024 and 2025. Because by early 2026 the PSL's are sold, ticket prices raised, and the new stadium set to opening for the 2026 season. I can't see, if Terry was faced with a Josh or McD decision, the HC not being sent packing.
There's too much financially riding on Josh and McD ain't that great a coach. You hope it never comes to that, particularly because McBeane know who is carrying them today and into the future.
Bills fans have come to see Josh as this morally infallible steward of the franchise.
Yet, it's basically common knowledge at this point that Josh's personal life spilled over and lead to a home playoff game meltdown versus Cincinnati. Wasting a 13-3 season.
He's just a man. He's going to chase p*ssy, money, fame, success and quality of life in general.........and if playing for Buffalo can't provide enough of ALL of them then he will do what superstars do and go where he thinks he can get enough of all of them.
The Bills have his heart now but they gotta' be sure not to f*ck it up. Dudes are always evaluating the other side of the fence at his age.
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
Great summary, Thanks for this.
I will say, I think Beane was trying a little too hard to persuade everyone that he thinks the WR room is just fine and we'll be casually looking to add another piece or two at some point in the future, not anxiously perusing the draft board for guys who have "WR" listed for position as our draft picks approach.
But I agree with you that all signs point to "disinclined to make a big splash to move up to the top-10"
I thought it was interesting that Beane mentioned "guys who are already on the roster" contributing at WR and made an analogy to Terrell Bernard who had to "prove it" that he could step up. Khalil, after the end of the season, I think has left no doubt he can play in the league although as a #1 or #2 is a good question.
Does anyone think he might have been referring to Justin Shorter, last year's 5th round pick?
Hey now..........don't suggest that Beane is disingenuous..........everyone know's he's pretty straight forward about everything.
It's always hilarious how selective people are when characterizing Beane's honesty.
I don't want an honest GM. His personnel evaluations haven't always been great but he's always been great at puppeteering Bills fans. It's hard to fake-it till you make-it as a GM if you can't use the slight of tongue like Beane.
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On 4/17/2024 at 9:04 AM, Gregg said:
First slump of the year with a 3-game losing streak. Hopefully they can stop the bleeding and get a win today.
Yeah the starting staff is shaky without Cole. Just not enough innings. The Jays starters aren't great but they are better. And the Yanks bullpen is excellent EXCEPT for their lack of strikeout ability. They really struggle with the Manfred-man in extra innings because that contact allowed is like an automatic run. Not surprising they've blown 2 saves in extra's. It was big salvaging that last game.
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Things aren't going well in Cincinnati
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
They don't have the appetite to keep the team together. The Brown family have clawed their way from Paul Brown owning like 5%-10% of the team originally to now owning 97%. They could generate some serious cash without relinquishing any control. If they wanted to. They do not.