Hapless Bills Fan
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Posts posted by Hapless Bills Fan
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41 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I'm sure it's been said somewhere in the 30 pages..........but can't Case Keenum hold? Seems to me he has done it before in his long run as a backup but perhaps I'm misremembering.
The Araiza pick isn't anything they should go out of their way to make work........ he's just a developmental punter with a powerful leg.............but for holding what's wrong with having an actually offensive player handling the football?
If nothing else it gives the defense reason to have pause about over-pursuing the kick block and ignoring responsibilities and potentially getting jacked on a fake.
I mean train your punter up but I think a QB with a guaranteed roster spot should be ale to be the primary.
I think there may not be reps in practice to train 2 holders.
I believe it used to be in fashion to have the BU QB hold, for just the advantage you mention of needing to defend against the fake.
I know in Dallas, Romo used to be the FG holder. Then when he was the starting QB, there was an incident where he didn't get the ball set properly, the Cowboys missed a FG and lost in the playoffs. He never held again. (This was all on A Football Life)
I think that and similar instances are why backup QB as Holder has gone out of fashion. It's all great while the backup is warming the bench, but if he plays, then it's an issue both in practice and potentially if he's gassed or shaken up in the game and then needs to go hold.
Since the NFL is cyclical and copycat, perhaps it will come back in fashion.
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12 hours ago, Doc said:
Crowder is one of their top-3 WRs and won't be going anywhere, unless he looks to have lost a step. Until that's the case, he's not going anywhere.
I will add, “lost a step” would only be determined in season, unless he just can’t get in the playbook -
3 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:
You mean....McDermott's implication that there was a reasonable play called and a failure of execution on the part of one or more players....might be correct? And that McDermott not wanting to throw a player or players under the bus publically, might actually be McDermott being a stand up guy and not a little weasel who doesn't own his own mistakes?
😱
3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:was fine up until he said "really just let us down, cause the fans arent out there". pretty tone deaf comment for a guy that spent what, 4 years here?
lost focus, lack of attention to detail... wish we replaced him with someone the opposite of that, OH WAIT
I didn't here it that way. The players get pretty tight with each other during the season, I think he just meant that they were hurting for each other most.
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1 hour ago, The Red King said:
If I were a Titans fan this would concern me a little. Yes, losing sucks. Josh had it worse and handled it better. And Tannie seems real bitter about the Titans nabbing another QB, adding it's not his job to train him? Not sure his head's gonna be in the game this season.
Eh. It's the beginning of the end, but it's not the end yet. Roethlisberger said pretty much the same about Mason Rudolph and IIRC Aaron Rodgers said stuff that amounted to the same thing about Love.
Roethlisberger had an all-pro kind a year in 2018 - >5000 yds passing, 67% completions, 34 TD and 5 INT, 7.6 ypa, only 24 sacks. James Conner had a pro-bowl rushing year. Smith-Schuster and AB both had >1200 receiving yards.
Unfortunately the #16 D let them down and they went 9-6-1 and missed the playoffs - showing, IMO, that one does need a decent defense to allow a great QB to win championships.
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27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?
"I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness.
I believe I gave a reasonable answer. You can disagree with that assessment.
You're the one who has a sweeping philosophical disagreement with the draft day decisions, overall strategy, and roster management of the Bills FO.
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21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Thanks! Appreciate it! Will read carefully.
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2 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:
5 or 6 games into the season, Cook will take over as the starter.
He's so much better than Motor "Hands of Stone" Singletary
1) Motor has become an excellent pass protector. Maybe Cook will get there, but for now he's gonna have a big adjustment there.
2) Motor was 15th in the league for YPC this season, with 4.6 - behind a poor run blocking OL that saw him tackled in the backfield a fair amount.
Cook says he can do it all, but he'll have to prove he can be productive running between the tackles.
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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:
Well you worked out the who is who on your own I see.
I was comparing AAV and not cap hit or one to the other.
Poyer is still an AAV of 9m. It was pushed to this year on his two year deal.
Mathieu looks to be a flat 11m x 3 years right now. They expect him to play that out. I don't think extending and restructuring Poyer to 34-35yrs old is in the cards for the Bills to lower his cap hit.
If they restructure at 9m for another 2 years on top of current contract, then I can see it happening but my point is I don't think he's going to be the same player in a year or two and they have younger guys to lock up long term.
The point is:
1) no one is 29. We are not comparing 29 and 31. We are comparing 30 and 31 - 1 year different
2) the AAV on a contract signed 2-3 years ago is not appropriately comparable to a contract signed today
3) Poyer is not making $9M this year, he is making close to $11M
4) we have no clue about the details of Mathieu's contract, which is almost certain not to be a "flat 11M 3 years"
Over and out.
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18 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:
Bengals will not even make the playoffs this year.
I don't think that's a good take.
They have a QB on a rookie deal.
He performed well even behind a sieve OL. They made 3 significant FA moves on OL and arguably upgraded at TE as well.
I think it's arguable they improved.
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37 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:
We exhausted everything KC had, and they swooped in and took advantage. Everyone knows this, that’s why they have no respect.
Some merit to that POV
18 minutes ago, eball said:If the Bengals are worried about getting respect instead of worrying about getting better they’re going to get their asses kicked.
I mean, one could say that about last year's Bills - more worried about "running it back" than getting better, and we did get our asses kicked too much. But we still had a chance to get to the Superbowl at the end of the day.
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34 minutes ago, Billl said:
That Smith contract was a disaster the day he signed it. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s cut after this season and it becomes a two year $26,000,000 contract. Beane is way too smart to do something like that. I fully expect a defensive purge next offseason with an emphasis on getting younger and cheaper.
When I look at the contract, I see it as a 3 year, $41.3M contract - 3 year, 33.5M with $7.8M dead cap. His picks dropped off, but he had 113 tackles and 7 PD last year. Not quite a disaster. If he has a similar year in 2022, I think they keep him through 2023.
Yeah, it was quite the contract for a dude who was 32 the season he signed it, and a definite outlier among top safety contracts. For the top-10 safeties, Smith is the only one older than 29 when he signed. Quandre Diggs is the only one who was 29. The other 8 were 24-27.
We'll see what the contract details look like, but if Poyer would sign for similar to Mathieu I think Beane would go for it.
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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:
When you look at the cost right now he's pretty much at the price tag he should be.
9m AAV for a 31y old vs 11m AAV for a 29y old
I don't understand this. Who is 29? Mathieu is 30 (well, 3 days short right now) and just signed for 3 years, $11M/yr AAV with $18M guaranteed.
Poyer is 31 (well, 16 days past 31 right now) and has a cap hit of $10.7M this season.
It doesn't make sense to compare the AAV of a contract signed 3 years ago with one reported today.
Poyer is just 1 year older than Mathieu. Mathieu, of course, is coming off 3 straight years of honors - 2 years of 1st team all pro and 2 years of probowl.
The other place Rosenhaus and Poyer will be looking is Vikes FS Harrison Smith, who a year ago at age 32 for 2021 signed a 4 year, $16M AAV contract with $26M guaranteed overall. Smith had 5 pro-bowls and a 2017 1st team all-pro on his resume and had 5 INTs and 10 PD to go with 89 tackles in 2020
Poyer had 5 INT and 9 PD to go with 93 tackles last year.
We'll be lucky if Poyer would go for a Mathieu contract. I think he's gonna want something similar to Smith!
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7 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:
Ha, i think going home was a huge draw, plus the saints had a big need at safety. The rams and eagles offered him a deal too. He really wanted to go back to KC but they didn’t offer him a deal.
Any idea why?
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Thanks for all the time you put into this.
I should add something substantive, but all I can say right now is I read your title as "our picks, post draft booze, and Beane"
(hat tip to Beane on Pat McAfee show)
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1 hour ago, Cash said:
Bills were 8th highest in % of man coverage last year.
Thanks. Do you know where I can find that data?
I'm going to guess, if data on % of man game by game were available, we might find it was even higher prior to White's injury and fell off afterwards.
10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:I find it puzzling seeing so many people already trying to limit the ceiling of Cook. This kid in our offense has a lot of upside and potential.
Labeling him just a 3rd down back is so short changing this kids potential. He has a lot more potential than just that, and I think he will be used along side Devin a lot like how Kamara is used for the Saints when he was running with Ingram.
I'll put it out there, none of us yet know what his ceiling on the field will be, but I don't think the Bills would have taken him at the bottom of the 2nd if they felt he was a '3rd down back'
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22 minutes ago, somnus00 said:
Seeing Kaiir pull out his notebook of his own negative plays so he knows what he needs to work on was super impressive. That screams "process" to me.
Not having the interviews is a big part of what throws off mock drafts and draft pundits, I think.
100%, no doubt. I've been honest before that I was a "wrong Josher", and that one of my mistakes was totally misunderstanding how critically important the interpersonal and personal character aspect is, when choosing a player.
These guys are all about to be fabulously wealthy by most people's standards. A 4th round draft choice like Gabe Davis has already earned $2M in 2 years. That puts them all in the top 0.5% of incomes, and most of the people outside pro sports who are at that level have worked at it for a couple decades after college. It takes a lot of character to maintain that "burning desire to be the best every week" that McDermott talked about, in the face of that kind of money and the public attention any football player attracts.
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9 hours ago, McDeerInTheHeadlights said:
I, for one, do not believe in miracle workers, but some people think that Kromer can squeeze something out of Ford, who sucks across-the-board. Following that logic, there is more hope for Quessenberry, who apparently sucks at pass protection but is pretty good at run blocking.
Quessenberry has been in the league since 2013, when the Texans drafted him in the 6th round.
Ford is going into his 4th year.
Clearly Quessenberry must have talent, since he was brought back after his Lymphoma treatment "gap years" and two different teams have had him on the roster. But I think there's some truth to the notion that it's harder to teach an older dog new tricks.
1 hour ago, hemma said:Dorsey looks to be putting a bit more emphasis on the short game.
Last year Allen’s Time to throw was 2.9, on the high side of QBs. Dorsey may be able to estimate that the changes will bring that # down
to 2.65 (or whatever).
That might be enough wiggle room for Kromer to deal with Saffold/Quesenberry’s deficiencies.
Just balling spit.
Perhaps. There also seems to be an emphasis on run-blocking chops (Saffold, Quessenberry). It may also be true that if teams feel we have an effective run threat not named Josh Allen, that will back them off a bit and make pass protection easier.
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2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:
AJ perhaps getting cut if he has a bad preseason? Likely not given our lack of depth and his scheme familiarity, but it's put up time for him.
I don't think the Bills will be cutting a DLman they drafted based on pre-season.
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17 hours ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:
We won't miss him.
Judging by reaction, you honestly think Von Miller is not an upgrade over Addison. OK? We counldn't keep both and still develop our youth and they will learn way more from Von than from Addison or Hughes. I'll say it again, we won't miss him.
Judging by whose reaction? Sounds like a straw man to me.
16 hours ago, buffalobillswin said:Our last memory of Mario is of him beating Damian Harris to the edge and not letting him get the first down in the playoffs. Hell of an effort play.
That was a great play.
Almost cancels my memory of Addison going for the Kyler Murray sack instead of just running full bore into him, which could have resulted in an incompletion.
17 hours ago, WMDman said:Wow surprised its a 2 year deal
Let's see what it looks like. Coulda been one of these "1 year deals structured to look like 2"
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On 4/30/2022 at 9:07 PM, RockpileSurvivor said:
The setting here is from The Draft Network’s 3 day draft coverage, where Marino is a full time scout. In addition to breaking down Luke Tenuta, it came out that in the vid Coach Kromer demonstrated his bruising O-Line techniques on Joe in a recent meeting (maybe at the combine).
He also said Kromer is very particular in who he wants to work with, so he must have seen something in Tenuta/he’s wired the right way etc., prompting the pick.
Good find.
Almost makes it seem as though Kromer may have wanted some "raw clay he could mold" in Tenuta
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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?
Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.
But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done?
I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response. I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again. Then I searched.
Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)
As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so. I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.
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15 hours ago, HappyDays said:
They're going to start playing press man now. They took Elam specifically to make that an option. Your mistake is watching how our secondary was schemed up with Levi Wallace as CB2 and assuming that is the only scheme McDermott and Frazier want to run. I watched Beane speak live yesterday. He openly admitted there were opponents last year that they would have liked to play press man against but lacked the ability at the player level to do it.
Elam will NOT be shielded by the system like Wallace was. He will be given some level of coverage help as a rookie but overall they will give him many more one-on-one opportunities than they ever gave Wallace. Elam's ability to play more on an island will open up the overall versatility of the back 7. If you think of a typical good offense where one outside WR is a shifty route runner and the other is a physical mismatch, White will be on an island against the shifty one and Elam will be on an island against the physical mismatch. They will still play primarily zone but Elam won't just be sitting back, letting the WR make the 5 yard catch, then rallying to tackle him. The days of people complaining about Wallace's "soft zone" coverage are over.
McDermott and Frazier have "gotten by" with Wallace. I think last year they finally got sick of just "getting by" and ending up in situations like the final 13 seconds where they couldn't trust him to do anything other than give a free release and rally to tackle 20 yards down the field. Replacing Wallace with Elam changed what we're able to do on an entire half of the field.
Might be worth adding that the Bills played more Man this past season than is generally believed, before White got hurt.
I'll go a little further and say - I believe when the Bills defensive Brain Trust analyzed What Went Wrong on defense, they concluded that one of the flaws was that zone secondary scheme, with two guys in Wallace and Jackson who are both excellent off-ball corners but can not play press man effectively or jam receivers at the line without risk of being burnt.
The answer to the plaintive fan cry "why are we giving those guys a free release off the line?" is "because that's what we had the player personnel to do, especially after White got hurt".
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. The argument some appear to be making that the Bills shouldn't have used a high draft pick on Elam because they could have just continued to do the same thing (play the same coverage) with late-round players, is pretty much that.
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17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Yes but I meant Cam Lewis........not Lee.
OK, that makes more sense then. So you're asking whether Hamlin and Johnson are better backup safety prospects than Lewis, Griffin, and McCloud? I would say the answer is "yes", but again - I'm speaking for him as a backup. I would agree it's not clear either Hamlin or Johnson can hold down the role full time, but then - it never is until a guy gets on the field more.
Lewis, Griffin, and McCloud are guys who have yet to prove they can play on the boundary in the NFL or at all as Safety. McCloud has played 14 snaps in the NFL at CB (for Cincy - no idea how he did). Griffin hasn't played at all.Both Hamlin and Johnson have seen snaps at safety and played capably. The Bills pretty clearly see Lewis, Griffin and McCloud as CB prospects, not safeties. Griffin and McCloud haven't played
17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:None of the reserve CB's or Safeties has played enough defensive snaps to be proven.
That's true
17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:I'd put Lewis and Hamlin on the same level.........Lewis has been the most notable of the backups in the secondary when he has played..........but Hamlin has better measurables for his position.
Jaquan Johnson I just don't think has the ability to step in for several games and not be abused.........he's a 4.70 40 guy and has looked like it when he's played. He's a special teamer.
Someone told me (dunno their source) that the Bills are higher on Hamlin than on Johnson, so they may agree with you about Johnson.
But the thing is, as a backup safety, Johnson has played about the same amount as Lewis has played as a backup CB. Both Johnson and Hamlin started and played 100% of the HOU game, which was not a harsh test. Prior to that, Johnson saw most of his snaps in the final game of the 2019 and 2020 season, where he played well against guys bound for the bus, while Lewis only other game was 2020 TEN as CB across from Josh Norman. That was a CF across the D.
Hamlin has only come in for about 1/3 of a game - where Johnson had started Poyer, so we had 2 backups in at safety. He did OK.
What are you seeing to say Lewis has been "notable" as a DB backup, in a good way?
17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:McCloud's athletic profile is very much like Kaiir Elam. Similar 4.37 40.......a bit bigger wingspan and hands. He has nice potential for a zone CB. He played some defense(briefly) in his 2 games for the Bills last year.
Was this preseason? Because https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McClNi00/gamelog/2021/ doesn't show any snaps for the Bills last year, and only 14 snaps in 1 game for Cincy (I didn't see that game).
Are you trying to construct an argument that McCloud is as good of a boundary corner prospect as Kaiir Elam based on physical measurements? And if not, what is your point, just that he has good physical measureables? Agreed, that's why they signed him initially and why they gave him a reserve contract this year.
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9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
You get that feeling because that's how you want to feel about it.
First, remember, you are new here.......I am not. This isn't an extension of BBMB it's a different forum.
Second, you don't want to consider that the Bills didn't make decisions that were in the best interest of the organization long term. That thought bothers you.
This draft was used to patch perceived holes at positions they think are easy enough to do that right away. Beane knows that being honest about that would be stupid because nobody thinks that's how you handle a draft. But the heart wants what it wants.
(...)
A lot of the things I have been saying for 15+ years were scoffed at initially and now the league does them and it's openly discussed. Focus on premium positions in round 1. Don't draft RB's in round 1. Even "it's only wrong to take the best QB in round 1 if you are afraid to take another the next year if he's better".........see Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.
I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings.
But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL.
A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.
Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)?
What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?
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Rd 5, Pick 148 (5): WR Khalil Shakir, Boise St
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
First part of the tweet
That's a bit misleading as it might imply he works for the NFL.
Kollman is a film analyst who runs a youtube channel called 'The Film Room" which he monetizes with promotional deals. Sort of like a league-wide Cover1.
His stuff is pretty good.
Except that officially, McKenzie didn't "test the market" as he was re-signed before the start of FA both years.
Stevenson offers cheaper return options 😂