In 2020, the final 538 polling average had Biden +8.4 pts, RCP average had Biden +7.2. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 pts, but the Electoral College tipping point state by just 0.6 pts.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2024
Eight months out, today’s 538 Biden approval: 39/56. Today’s RCP average: Trump +2.3.