Yesli Vega carried Culpeper County by about 60-40%.

That's good, but it actually puts her on track to lose by about a 51-49% (looking at history), unless we see a shift in other counties.

Big one is Prince William. Yesli needs at least 33% in the county in order to win. #VA7

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) November 9, 2022